SurfForecaster

How it works

One forecast for each of five Southern California regions, built from a nearshore wave model, buoys, wind stations and tide gauges.

Sources

Where each number comes from. If a station stops reporting, the next one in line takes over and the site names it.

Surf
CDIP nearshore wave model at 10 m depth, about every 200 m along the exposed coast. Updated hourly; the forecast runs about 6 days.
Swell
Nine offshore buoys from CDIP and NOAA. Forecast direction from NOAA GFS-Wave at three points offshore.
Wind
Pier and airport stations now. The forecast blends HRRR, NBM, ECMWF, GEM and GFS from Open-Meteo.
Tide
NOAA tide predictions and gauges.
Water
Pier thermometers first, then nearby buoys.
Map
CDIP wave model grids: 100 m along the mainland, 1 km offshore and around the islands. A new run every 6 hours.
Alerts
National Weather Service alerts and surf zone forecasts.
First-choice station for each region
RegionWind nowTideWater
Santa BarbaraStearns WharfStearns Wharf gaugeStearns Wharf
VenturaOxnard AirportRincon Island prediction, estimatedOffshore buoy
Los AngelesSanta Monica PierSanta Monica Pier gaugeSanta Monica Pier
Orange CountyJohn Wayne Airport, 10 km inlandNewport prediction, estimatedNewport Pier
San DiegoScripps PierScripps Pier gaugeScripps Pier

Water by month

Monthly mean water temperature by region, °F
°FSanta BarbaraVenturaLos AngelesOrange CountySan Diego
Jan5958586060
Feb5857596060
Mar5757585961
Apr5856606063
May5958626365
Jun6262666668
Jul6465696972
Aug6566707072
Sep6666697071
Oct6464666868
Nov6262616564
Dec5959606261

Monthly means from 10 to 25 years of measured records. The live reading always wins: upwelling can drop the water 5 to 8°F in a day.

Update times

How often each feed is checked, and its latest reading.

75 of 87 feeds current as of 3:56 PM.

The report is written at 6:00 AM each day. Today's is an auto summary.

Regions

Five regions, north to south. Each covers only its exposed coast.

Boundaries

Surf height

One range for each region, from every exposed point on its coast.

Face height
The model gives swell height and period at 10 m depth. Each swell becomes a breaking face height (Komar and Gaughan), counted at 0.6 under 8 s, 0.8 from 8 to 12 s and 1.0 from 12 s up.
Face factor
One factor per region, fitted so the typical max matches the National Weather Service surf zone forecast on 542 mornings from April 2025 to September 2026. It now lands within 1 ft on 91 to 96% of mornings.
Typical range
Most of the coast falls in it. The low end is 0.8 times the 25th percentile across the region, rounded down; the high end is 1.2 times the 75th percentile, rounded up. Flat when that high end is under 1 ft before rounding.
Best exposures
1.2 times the 90th percentile, rounded up: what the most exposed tenth of the coast gets.
Biggest along
Names the stretch with the biggest median when it runs more than 15% above the region. Otherwise the size is about the same along the whole coast.
Face factor by region
RegionFace factor
Santa Barbara0.80
Ventura0.95
Los Angeles0.85
Orange County0.70
San Diego0.75

Rating

One scale for every region, from size and period, scaled by wind. Tide is shown, never rated.

Size is judged on the 75th percentile face height, so a quarter of the exposed coast is at least that big. Size and swell period give the potential, 0 to 10. Wind scales it down to the score.

Scale

Rating by score
RatingMeterScore
FlatSurf under 1 ft
Very PoorUnder 1.5
Poor1.5 to 3.0
Poor to Fair3.0 to 4.0
Fair4.0 to 5.5
Fair to Good5.5 to 7.0
Good7.0 to 8.5
Epic8.5 and up

Good in Santa Barbara needs a swell period of 10 s or more. Epic needs a typical max of 4 ft or more, glassy, offshore or cross-offshore wind, and a potential of 9 or more.

Size bands

Size bands and period points by region
BandSanta BarbaraThe other four
Too small below2.0 ft2.8 ft
Ideal3.0-5.0 ft4.2-7.0 ft
Too big above9.0 ft12.0 ft
Period+1.5 at 13 s, +0.5 at 11 s, -1.5 under 8 s+1.0 at 10 s, +0.5 at 8 s, -1.0 under 6 s

Size scores 0 to 3 below the small mark, 3 to 6 up to ideal, 6 to 8 across ideal, back down to 6 at the big mark and 4 beyond it. Santa Barbara has its own band because the islands shadow most of its coast. Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego share one band, so their ratings compare directly.

Wind

Wind multiplier by direction and speed in knots
KtUnder 55-1010-1515-20Over 20
Glassy1.001.001.001.001.00
Offshore1.001.000.950.900.80
Cross-offshore1.000.950.900.800.70
Cross-shore0.900.750.600.500.40
Cross-onshore0.850.650.500.350.25
Onshore0.800.550.400.250.20

Glassy is under 3 kt. Direction is judged against the way each coast faces: Santa Barbara 185°, Ventura 225°, Los Angeles 210°, Orange County 220°, San Diego 255°. Onshore is within 45° of that, cross-onshore to 80°, cross-shore to 100°, cross-offshore to 135°, offshore beyond.

Confidence

How far to trust the numbers ahead.

The wave model runs twice, once driven by ECMWF and once by WaveWatch III. Confidence is the gap between the two as a share of their mean, plus 5% for each day ahead.

High under 20%, medium under 40%, low beyond. The site names the confidence only when it is not high.

After about 6 days there are no regional heights, only the offshore outlook from ECMWF, Météo-France and GFS-Wave. Outlook days are medium confidence at best.

Limits

What this forecast cannot see.